Crime prediction (1125A/23)
Request
Your force’s use of geographic crime analysis and crime prediction, and individual prediction and risk assessment
Specifically, I would like the following information:
- In relation to your force’s Knife Crime and Serious Violence and predictive crime models please provide the following information:
- Are the predictions from these models currently being given to officers for use in live decision-making?
- Is there a provisional date that these models will be used operationally, and if so, what are they?
- Is any data other than recorded crime data used to make the predictions (e.g. crime reports, recorded crimes, stop and search data, postcodes data, socio-economic information, census data, or other demographic data such as ethnicity or nationality);
- What are the types of outcomes that can occur with the support of or following one of these predictions (e.g. allocation of police resources, patrols, targeted interventions, operations, monitoring, stop and search, arrest)?
- In relation to your force’s Integrated Offender Management predictive crime model please provide the following information:
- Are the predictions from these models currently being given to officers for use in live decision-making?
- Is there a provisional date that this model will be used operationally, and if so, when is that?
- Is any data other than data on criminal convictions used to make the predictions (e.g. crime reports, arrests, first contact with police, number of contacts with police, number of reports, ethnicity, nationality, demographic data or other types of data), and if so, what is that?
- What are the types of outcomes that can occur with the support of one of these predictions (e.g. monitoring, intervention, stop and search, arrest, probation or licence conditions)?
- How many people have been assessed by the model to date?
- If available in an easily retrievable format, the number of different risk scores that have been applied (e.g. low, low medium, medium, high).
Response
Please find enclosed our response, and also attachment (1125A_23 Attachment).
Under section 21 of the Act, we are not required to provide information in response to a request if it is already reasonably accessible to you. The information you requested is available on the following websites that are on the attachment (1125A/23 Attachment) all published on the:
- In relation to your force’s Knife Crime and Serious Violence and predictive crime models please provide the following information:
- Are the predictions from these models currently being given to officers for use in live decision-making?
- Is there a provisional date that these models will be used operationally, and if so, what are they?
- Is any data other than recorded crime data used to make the predictions (e.g. crime reports, recorded crimes, stop and search data, postcodes data, socio-economic information, census data, or other demographic data such as ethnicity or nationality);
- What are the types of outcomes that can occur with the support of or following one of these predictions (e.g. allocation of police resources, patrols, targeted interventions, operations, monitoring, stop and search, arrest)?
- In relation to your force’s Integrated Offender Management predictive crime model please provide the following information:
- Are the predictions from these models currently being given to officers for use in live decision-making?
- Is there a provisional date that this model will be used operationally, and if so, when is that?
- Is any data other than data on criminal convictions used to make the predictions (e.g. crime reports, arrests, first contact with police, number of contacts with police, number of reports, ethnicity, nationality, demographic data or other types of data), and if so, what is that?
- What are the types of outcomes that can occur with the support of one of these predictions (e.g. monitoring, intervention, stop and search, arrest, probation or licence conditions)?
- How many people have been assessed by the model to date?
- If available in an easily retrievable format, the number of different risk scores that have been applied (e.g. low, low medium, medium, high).
Please see Attachment 1125A 23 for answers to the above questions.